Moody's takes rating actions on three Romanian commercial banks

By Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Limited

Limassol, November 26, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today
downgraded the ratings of three Romanian commercial banks in light of its
global review of systemic support indicators for the country's banking
system, and also because of the asset quality challenges faced by
Romanian banks in the currently difficult operating environment. The
ratings of the affected banks are as follows:

i) Banca Comerciala Romana SA (Erste Group)

- Bank financial strength rating (BFSR) of D remains unchanged with
stable outlook.

- Global local currency (GLC) deposit ratings downgraded to Baa2/P-2 with
a stable outlook from Baa1/P-2.

- Foreign currency (FC) deposit ratings of Baa3/P-3 remain unchanged with
stable outlook.

ii) BRD -- Groupe Societe Generale

- BFSR of D+ (which maps to a Ba1 baseline credit assessment) downgraded
to D with stable outlook.

- GLC deposit ratings downgraded to Baa2/P-2 with a stable outlook from
A2/P-1.

- FC deposit ratings of Baa3/P-3 remain unchanged with stable outlook.

iii) Raiffeisen Bank SA

- BFSR of D remains unchanged with stable outlook.

- GLC deposit ratings downgraded to Baa3/P-3 with stable outlook from
Baa2/P-2.

- FC deposit ratings of Baa3/P-3 remain unchanged with stable outlook.

Earlier this year, Moody's published a Special Comment on its review of
the capacity of governments and central banks to support their banking
systems, entitled "Financial Crisis More Closely Aligns Bank Credit Risk
and Government Ratings in Non-Aaa Countries", available on moody.com.

Consistent with the analytical criteria specified in the Special Comment,
and given Romania's current situation and future prospects, Moody's has
changed the systemic support input for Romanian banks' ratings to Baa2
from the Aa3 local currency deposit ceiling (LCDC). The new Baa2 systemic
support anchor for Romanian banks is placed one notch above the Baa3
local currency government debt rating. As a result of this, the local
currency deposit ratings of Romanian banks have been downgraded,
affecting each bank differently.

In the Special Comment, Moody's noted that the appropriate reference
rating for the capacity of a national government to provide support to
banks during a prolonged and widespread crisis would be aligned with or
constrained by the government's own debt rating. However, Moody's also
believes that this rating could be adjusted, usually positively, to
reflect the non-fiscally dependent measures that many central banks and
governments can deploy to support banks.

In deciding whether the systemic support anchor can be higher than the
local-currency debt rating of the national government, Moody's
considered a number of factors for each banking system. These are: the
size of the banking sector relative to the government's resources; the
level of stress in the banking system and in the economy; the FC
obligations of the banking system relative to the government's own FC
resources; political and historical patterns; and the possibility of any
drastic shift in government priorities.

Moody's regards the systemic importance of the Romanian banking system as
moderate given the ratio of banking assets to GDP of around 63%, with a
weighted average bank financial strength rating (BFSR) of D for the rated
Romanian commercial banks. The level of stress in the Romanian banking
system has increased due to the deep recession in the country, with the
proportion of non-performing loans (NPLs) growing steeply in recent
quarters, reaching around 13.4% as of August 2009 based on local
standards (loans classified as doubtful and loss).

Moody's notes that the impact of the downturn on the Romanian economy is
significant given the slump on export-oriented sectors and on local
retail demand for goods and services. The rating agency also notes that
the banking system's FC obligations relative to the overall economy and
the central bank's (NBR) FC reserves are quite significant, mainly in the
form of deposits denominated in FC as well as FC borrowings that banks
usually obtain from their European parent banks.

Political and historical evidence suggests that Romania's government is
likely to show moderate support towards its banking system, although in
Moody's opinion its stance towards supporting the systemically important
banks has not changed and is not likely to change in the foreseeable
future. That said, Moody's notes that Romania is currently facing
presidential elections which will determine the stability and functioning
of the country's government. The new government will need to regain the
confidence of international investors. At the same time, the government
will also need to undertake the necessary economic reforms to ensure the
timeliness of a EUR20 billion international aid package, mainly coming
from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission
(EC).

The Baa2 systemic support input for Romanian banks is one notch above the
Baa3 local currency government debt rating. This uplift is predicated on
Moody's view of a "medium" risk of a system-wide banking crisis as well
as a "medium" likelihood of the government ring-fencing its own fiscal
position from the banking system. In addition, NBR's good regulatory and
supervisory framework provides some added comfort about Romania's ability
to provide systemic support to its banking system. In addition, it should
be noted that all three Romanian banks' deposit ratings continue to
benefit from external support coming from their European parent banks.

The BFSR of D+ for BRD, the majority-owned subsidiary of the French Group
Societe Generale, was downgraded to D in the wake of the deep economic
recession in Romania and its impact on the bank's asset quality and
earnings. The rating action was driven by the bank's reduced financial
flexibility, as reflected in depressed profitability, deteriorating asset
quality and reducing provision coverage levels. Although BRD remains well
capitalised with a capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 12.3% as of September
2009, its net profits for the first nine months of 2009 declined 19%
year-on-year, mainly due to higher provisioning costs that increased by
almost 200%. During 2009, the bank's ratio of gross NPLs to gross loans
has increased significantly based on local standards (classified as
doubtful and loss), excluding any restructured loans, while the NPL
provisioning coverage without considering any collaterals was relatively
low at the end of September 2009.

Moody's believes that these challenges are better captured in BRD's new
BFSR of D (mapping to a Ba2 baseline credit assessment) in line with the
BFSR of the other two rated Romanian banks. Despite BRD's more prudent
lending practices over the past few months, its relatively high exposure
to the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) segment makes its loan
book vulnerable to the effects of the economic recession. Looking ahead,
Moody's expects the elevated credit risk in Romania to continue exerting
pressure on all banks' earnings capacity and capitalisation levels.

Moody's previous rating action for all rated Romanian banks named above
was implemented on 22 June 2009 when the ratings were placed on review
for a possible downgrade.

The principal methodologies used in rating this issuer are "Bank Financial
Strength Ratings: Global Methodology", and "Incorporation of
Joint-Default Analysis into Moody's Bank Ratings: A Refined Methodology".
These can be found at www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies
sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and
factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this
issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on
Moody's website.

Headquartered in Bucharest, Banca Comerciala Romana reported total assets
of RON70.8 billion (EUR16.9 billion) as of the end of September 2009.

Headquartered in Bucharest, BRD -- Groupe Societe Generale posted total
assets of RON47.9 billion (EUR11.4 billion) as of the end of September
2009.

Headquartered in Bucharest, Raiffeisen Bank had total assets of RON18
billion (EUR4.3 billion) as of the end of September 2009.

Stirile lumii moderne: PR-isti cu luntre noua. De sosea, pentru off-road

Pentru ca traim in Romania, o tara foarte des reperata in Africa, evenimentele care se intampla par, din nou, de prea multe ori, sa nu aiba nicio noima. De exemplu, dupa ce Grupul Tiriac renunta la participatia detinuta la Mercedes-Benz Romania, Daimler, devenit unic asociat, decide sa sustina Politia Romana pe patru roti.



In speta, transmite urmatoarele informatii:

Autovehiculul Jeep militar J8 este pus la dispozitia Serviciului de Presă şi PR din cadrul Politiei Capitalei, timp de trei luni

Jeep J8 este un autovehicul special creat pentru uz militar si nu se comercializeaza catre persoanele fizice

SUV-ul militar intruneste calitati exceptionale de off-road si performante remarcabile

Evident, e nevoie de sustinere pentru organisme precum Politia. Nimic de zis. Insa PR-istii din Politia Capitalei nu au nevoie de un Jeep ca sa transmita comunicate de presa. Imi vine foarte greu sa cred ca avem munti in Bucuresti ca sa fie nevoie de un autoturism off-road care sa poata urca pante de 60 de grade. Inteleg si problema craterelor din asfalt, insa, nu stiu de ce, am impresia ca nu va risca cineva sa atinga o roata de bordura, dar'mite altceva.



In perspectiva imaginii, daca ar fi sa discutam problema culorilor, am convingerea Daimler reuseste sa disocieze intre bleumarin de la Interne si oliv de la Aparare. In substrat, evident, retinem ideea ca, poate, poate, va exista si un guvern care sa isi permita sa cumpere asemenea autovehicule. In mod cert sunt de cel putin patru ori mai scumpe decat Loganurile super-echipate pentru un pret de 70.000 de euro. Nu trebuie omisa nici problema lipsei aeronavelor care ar trebui sa securize spatiul aerian al Bucurestiului. Chiar si asa, astept cu interes sa apara un soi de flota militara pe Dambovita si in Herastrau.

Basescu - Badea: 1-0. Turul doi genereaza un consens

Campania electorala abia acum incepe. O prioada a fost absenta din viata Romaniei. Din punctul meu de vedere, candidatii s-au lansat mediatic cursa pentru prezidentiale abia in ultima saptamana. Primul tur de scrutin a lasat in cursa doi indivizi: Geoana si Basescu. Aditional acestor personaje, raman in vizor Antonescu si Badea. Da. Mircea Badea. Realizatorul acela cu foarte mult aplomb care incepe sa piarda din ce in ce mai mult teren. Poate pentru rating, poate pentru altceva.

Un aproape fost sustinator infocat al lui Badea este Van.. In replica la emisiunea de ieri a lui Badea sa retinem un post in care eu si Van suntem de acord (a doua premiera, sa zicem):

Bai frate, dar de cand cu minunata campanie electorala nu mai pot. Mai nou nu este doar om de televiziune, este si analist politic. Cum apare Gadea, Ciutacu, Stan, sau mai stiu eu cine intr-o emisiune gen “Sinteza zilei”, hopa si Badea. Si da-i si lupta, si tipa, si agita-te, si gesticuleaza sa eradicam coruptia, sa analizam, sa ne dam cu parerea ca doar este o somitate in materie de orice. Bai, dar absolut orice!!! Hai ca asta nu ar fi atat de grav. Insa, prietene, atunci cand latri la comanda, si lucrul asta se vede din avion, am o problema. Se stie ca Badea nu il suporta pe Basescu. Ok, foarte multa lume nu il suporta. Dar vino prietene, si fii obiectiv. Da in toti pana la urma, ca nici unul nu e mai breaz. Tu care erai alergic la orice are legatura cu politica, vii acuma si mi-l iei in brate pe Antonescu. De ce? Ca a facut coalitie cu PSD-ul care la randul lui are treaba cu PC-ul lui Felix? Tu care sareai ca ars cand aparea cea mai mica urma de indoiala referitoare la integritatea morala a unui politician, treci repejor peste episodul Felix? Tu care strigai in cele patru zari ca esti impartial si ii luai la bani marunti pe toti, vii acum si iti faci un scop in viata din a fi anti-Basescu? S-au terminat subiectele cumva si asta a ramas singurul corupt din tara? Brusc, toti sunt niste ingerasi si nu mai ai cu cine face rating? Hai sa fim seriosi! Mai variaza subiectele ca incepi sa plictisesti.

Apel catre informatori: Dragilor, consultati hartile!

Stiu ca este de bun-simt sa cunosti intai unde este pozitionat pe harta lumii statul despre care urmeaza sa realizezi un material si abia apoi sa te arunci in dezbateri. Subscriu observatiei guvernatorului BNR, Mugur Isarescu, care preciza la un moment dat ca majoritatea analistilor nu cunosc nici geografie, nici economie. Intr-adevar, observ cu stupoare ca asa este. Din pacate, nu este singura lor carenta.

Republica Romania, ex-socialista, actualmente semi-prezindetiala, se regaseste pe harta Europei in partea central sud-estica, la distante aproximativ egale fata de extremitatile continentului european. Asadar, ramanem in continuare intr-un punct strategic pentru tot ceea ce inseamna securitate si spatiu de tranzitare in zona Europei Centrale si de Est. Intr-un fel, sa spunem ca suntem frontiera. Nu ultima, insa suntem suficient de bine plasati sa avem un punct de vedere pertinent in forurile internationale.

Nu suntem chiar asa de saraci si nici chiar asa de indiferenti la cunoasterea legislatiei romanesti. A se consulta rapoartele. Cunoastem continutul Constitutiei pe care, din pacate, editorii agentiilor internationale de presa nu il inteleg. Fie din orgoliu, fie din indiferenta, acesti deosebiti indivizi aflati in pozitii interesante nu apeleaza la cineva sa le explice exact care sunt atributiile presedintelui. Ceausescu nu mai e, Iliescu inca activeaza in PSD, fost PDSR, descenti din PCR. Basescu ramane singurul presedinte care poate naviga oriunde in lume. Iata o forma bruta de deontologie relevanta la nivel microscopic.

Din capitolul "Internationali fara repere", retinem..

Relatarea CNN despre alegeri:

Polls suggest center right incumbent Traian Basescu, seeking a second five-year term, and Social Democratic challenger Mircea Geoana are the frontrunners among 12 candidates, with the top two in Sunday's vote expected to go forward to a runoff on December 6.

[...]

The election is the first for Romania's head of state to be conducted since the Black Sea nation joined the EU in 2007 and comes weeks ahead of the 20th anniversary in December of the revolution that toppled the Communist dictatorship of Nicolae Ceausescu.

The former Soviet satellite remains one of the poorest corners of the 27-member economic bloc and has struggled to tackle corruption. Badly hit by the global political crisis, Romania was forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund, the EU and the World Bank in March for a $27 billion aid package to prop up the country's economy.

Viziunea AFP

Centre-right incumbent Traian Basescu and left-wing leader Mircea Geoana battled to form vote-winning alliances Monday after being forced into a second round of a presidential election.

With the result key to deciding how Romania gets out of an economic and political crisis, the first round of the election on Sunday left the two in a neck and neck race that will be decided in the December 6 run-off.

With 99,81 percent of the vote counted, president Basescu had 32.43 percent of the vote while Social Democrat Geoana had 31.16 percent, according to the central election office. Liberal Crin Antonescu was third with 20.02 percent.

[...]

Turnout, while lower than in the 2004 presidential ballot, was higher than had been expected at 53.52 percent, according to national electoral commission figures.

Since the fall of communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989, voter participation has declined, from 86 percent in 1990 to 58.93 percent in the last presidential election.

Monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said the election was largely up to international standards despite shortcomings, such as some citizens being unable to vote before polls closed.

Romania's interior ministry has received more than 1,000 complaints of problems related to the vote and had identified 72 illegal incidents, concerned mainly with "multiple voting and vote buying," the OSCE said.

Sinteza Reuters

President Traian Basescu led by a slim margin in the first round of Romania's presidential election on Monday, but the close results pointed to tough talks ahead to build a new government.

Failure to form a new governing coalition rapidly could further endanger a 20-billion-euro ($30 billion) aid package led by the International Monetary Fund and hamper efforts to move the country quickly out of recession.

Partial results from 97 percent of polling stations showed centrist Basescu had 33 percent of the votes cast in Sunday's ballot. Social Democrat (PSD) leader Mircea Geoana had 31 percent.

If Basescu wins the second round on Dec. 6, he will be able to choose a new prime minister to put an end to a government crisis that has delayed IMF aid and put off investors.

However, commentators say Basescu's confrontational style has made him enemies among other political groups, raising questions about his ability to form a stable coalition.

[...]

Under Romanian law, a president has little effect on day-to-day policy decisions but controls the formation of the government by appointing a prime minister.

Broad reforms are vital. Twenty years after the execution of Communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu, the Balkan country of 22 million people is struggling to eradicate corruption that distorts the impact of free market reforms.

The economy is expected to shrink by up to 8 percent in 2009, millions of Romanians live on less than 100 euros ($149) a month and no senior officials accused of graft have been convicted.

The Romanian leu showed little reaction to the results of Sunday's first round, with markets waiting for more clarity on the future government.

It has lost 6 percent of its value this year while other regional currencies have mostly regained ground after suffering heavy damage in the first quarter of 2009.

Unde au fost observatorii???

S-a votat. Inca nu s-au publicat rezultatele oficiale ale numaratorii voturilor, asa ca nu voi trata pntru moment acest aspect.
Asa cum s-a intamplat de fiecare data, fraudele au curs intr-un ritm mai alert. S-a lasat cu dosare penale, cu amenzi de toate formele. Partidele au plans si de o parte si de cealalata. Purtatorul de cuvant IGP, Cristian Ciocan, promovat in perioada primului tur de scrutin la rangul de reprentant al Internelor in relatia cu presa, a fost mult prea rezervat in declaratii.

Marii absenti de pe micul eran au fost observatorii diverselor ONG-uri si organisme internationale specializate in monitorizarea alegerilor. Presa, in speta, Realitatea si Antena, s-a impartit pe unde a apucat. Oriunde au fost, nu avem grupurile acelea de personaje pline de avant in demonstrarea fraudelor. Evident, altii decat cei cu carnet de membru. De aceasta data au fost de negasit observatorii independenti. Mi-e greu sa cred ca presa nu i-ar fi bagat in seama. Cand au fost alegerile in Republica Moldova a fost plin dde astfel de indivizi. Multe agentii de presa, multi baieti din serviciile moscovite si o droaie de observatori de prin toate forurile internationale.

Cozile de la sectiile de vot reprezinta o alta problema tratata superficial.. Dar, asa cum precizam, dupa anuntul BEC privind rezultatele finale ale primului tur voi comenta si restul.



UPDATE

Stirile scot la iveala o serie de observatori discreti ai OSCE.. Pe site-ul OSCE nu este postata nicio informatie legata de supervizarea primului tur de scrutin in Romania. Oare ce inseamna discretie pentru acest organism?

Despre coruptie. Agregator: Transparency International

Un subiect la moda in toate timpurile va ramane lupta impotriva coruptiei. O analiza realizata de Tranparency International releva, prin intermediul a 3-10 chestionare aplicate repondentilor, care este perceptia unei natiuni asupra coruptiei din tara.

Potrivit analizei, Romania are acelasi scoring cu Bulgaria, devansand net Rusia si China. Din pacate insa, potrivit acestei evaluari, Turcia este mult mai bine cotata decat Romania.

In ziua alegerilor prezidentiale, site-ul ministerului de Finante nu este valabil

Dupa incidentul de ieri cand presedintia de la Sofia a ramas cu conturile goale din cauza ministrului bulgar de Finante, in Romania, in ziua cea mare de 22 noiembrie 2009, site-ul ministerului roaman de Finante nu merge.. Sa ne asteptam oare la o noua modificare a taxelor?

Am votat! Doamne-Ajuta!

Dupa multe retineri, vineri seara m-am hotarat ca e cazul sa merg sa votez. Evident, dezbaterea organizata de IPP pe bani publici m-a convins ca se poate si in Romania. Primii trei clasati in sondaje au incercat din rasputeri sa arate ca un dialog doi cu doi relativ de bun-simt este posibil si in Romania. Si au reusit. Replicile bune si atitudinile de o decenta cum rar mi-a fost dat sa vad pe sticla m-au determinat nu doar sa merg sa aleg un presedinte mai tanar si o idee mai pragmatic si nu sa anulez buletinul de vot, dar sa imi exprim si dorinta pentru costuri bugetare mai reduse cu privire la formula de organizare a Parlamentului Romaniei.

Din pacate, desi dezbaterea organizata pe banii poporului nu au dat sansa turor candidatilor sa se arate si la televizor, am convingerea ca vom avea ocazia sa demonstram ca bunul simt si responsabilitatea sunt si pe placul romanilor. Conditia esentiala ramane ca presa sa incerce sa mearga pe acelasi principiu nu doar de dragul rapoartelor europene, dar si de dragul decentei dialogului. Doamne-Ajuta!

UPDATE

Votez dupa 5 ani de absenteism. Nu este un vot impotriva, ci unul dat dintr-o convingere ferma ca se poate si altfel. Este un prim pas. Sa vedem ce va urma.