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15 iulie 2010

Department of Defence (US)

Source US Department of Defence















The view from above shows the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Cypress at work, skimming a large patch of oil in the Gulf of Mexico, July 13, 2010.
U.S. Coast Guard
photo by Ensign Frankie L. Temple

















U.S. Army Sgt. Phillip Toward secures the perimeter of a village during a patrol in the Zabul province, Afghanistan, July 13, 2010. Toward, a security forces gunner, is assigned to Provincial Reconstruction Team Zabul.
U.S. Air Force
photo by Senior Airman Nathanael Callon

















Members of the International Security Assistance Force provide security on a compound in Afghanistan's Kandahar province, July 2, 2010.
U.S. Army
photo by Pfc. Christian Palermo

















An instructor holds down a Malaysian soldier's head as he unfastens himself from a shallow water egress trainer during a course on Marine Corps Base Hawaii, June 30, 2010. The one-day course is designed to train military personnel in basic procedures used to egress, or exit, a ditched aircraft.
U.S. Marine Corps
photo by Lance Cpl. Orlando Perez

















U.S. soldiers and airmen in a mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicle move through an Afghan village to ensure roads are safe for travel in the Pul-e Alam district in Logar province, Afghanistan, June 29, 2010. The troops are assigned to teams to detect and dispose of improvised explosive devices and ordnance.
U.S. Army
photo by Spc. Theodore Schmidt

















U.S. Marine Corps Staff Sgt. James Nine and Lance Cpl. Mark Kobus push a case of water rigged with a disposable parachute out of a CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter during an experiment to find new ways of delivering emergency supplies to troops on the ground over Drop Zone Jake, Afghanistan, July 1, 2010. Nine and Kobus are assigned to the 1st Reconaissance Battalion.
U.S. Marine Corps
photo by Cpl. Ryan Rholes

















Dr. Sharon K. Taylor, with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Dan Alonso, manager of the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge, release brown pelicans from crates in Port Aransas, Texas, June 27, 2010. Workers rescued the pelicans off the Louisiana coast and transported them to Fort Jackson Bird Rehabilitation Center, where the birds were fed, washed and stabilized to prepare for their return to the wild.
U.S. Coast Guard
photo by Petty Officer 3rd Class Robert Brazzell

















U.S. Army Pfc. Abel Scott, left, Pfc. Wayne Paliwoda, center, and Pvt. Michael Culver, right, sift material to make concrete at a Santa Librada, Panama, elementary school, June 26, 2010. Scott, Paliwoda, and Culver are construction engineers assigned to the 372nd Engineer Company.
U.S. Air Force
photo by Tech. Sgt. Eric Petosky

14 iulie 2010

Despre evidenta absentei - informare BCE





Concluziile unei analize realizate de Banca Centrala Europeana releva ca euro are un rol major ca moneda de schimb in Europa.





The euro was relatively widely used in countries with close geographical or institutional links with the euro area.
During 2009, the role of the euro increased in currency substitution (use of euro banknotes) and asset substitution (use of the euro in bank deposits and loans) in EU neighbouring regions.
The review also presents some analytical findings on the international role of the euro. It contains special features on the returns on international assets and liabilities of issuers of international currencies, on the construction of a summary indicator of the international role of the euro, and on the degree of internationalisation of major currencies.

Sa nu omitem insa ca aprecierile urmeaza actiunii intensive de eliminare monedelor nationale, cu anumite exceptii, in cazul statelor care au aderat la zona euro. Bineinteles, argumentul oficial este ca s-a incercat subminarea euro, mai ales ca Merkel anunta la un moment dat ca este dorinta populatiei sa se revina la marca germana pe motiv ca le-ar fi mai bine. Bine, tot nemtii au incercat fel de fel de tertipuri inainte si dupa ce Nokia si-a plasat fabrica din germania in Romania.

Totusi, daca dolarul american ar fi fost utilizat intensiv in Europa cu siguranta s-ar fi spus ca e mana chinezilor care sustin temporar valuta americana pana o retrag de pe piata dupa ce Trezoreria americana a cerut intensiv guvernului de la Beijing sa cumpere dolari ca sa poate sustine cursul. Si asta s-ar adauga unei campanii agresive de expansiune economica, in conditiile in care s-a semnat, pe langa multe acorduri cu rusii, si un "pact" pentru exinderea unei uzine chineze care sa livreze, potrivit sefului Rosatom, "uraniu rus slab imbogatit". Ramane insa de vazut cati dintre producatorii de armament, munitie si tehnica nucleara risca sa fie cotati pe bursele europene si daca yuan-ul va ajunge un reper in schimbul comercial international, dupa ce FMI pare ca renunta treptat la DST pe motiv ca.. nu prea are incotro.

26 iunie 2010

Cu mainile legate - versiunea all inclusive

Asemanarea intre parlamentari si ziaristi o reprezinta perceptia in societate. Singura diferenta relevanta, este, din pacate, imunitatea. Date fiind aceste repere, se procedeaza intensiv la subminarea ambelor categorii "profesionale".

La capitolul "activitatea parlamentarilor" putem enumera suspendarea presedintelui si motiuni de cenzura respinse de fiecare data, dar sa nu omitem parte din majoritatea legilor scrise in regimul "totul redus", fie posturi, fie bani, prezentate sub denumirea de "comasare" in scopul "debirocratizarii" serviciilor. Singura activitate care este sub semnul intrebarii, din punctul meu de vedere, este cea a Comisiei de ancheta a serviciilor de informatii, despre care nu se discuta decat ocazional, eventual cand se iveste o campanie internationala de presa. Uneori nici atunci. A trecut ceva vreme de cand nu am mai auzit de interpelari si imi pun o intrebare fireasca: Cine saboteaza demersurile jurnalistice ce au ca unica menire declarata informarea poporului prin orice mijloace? Probabil ca orice persoana constienta de faptul ca serviciul de expertiza imagistica de la Ministerul Justitiei poate fi contestat din simplul motiv ca nu se poate face o contraexpertiza in Romania iar entitatile interesate trebuie sa dispuna de resurse pentru analiza in afara tarii.

Revenind la subiectele de pe ordinea de zi, de ce a fost Dan Diaconescu arestat? Cred ca cel mai simplu si realist raspuns este: Pentru ca s-a putut. Ce efecte are? Rating maxim la OTV, rating redus la celelalte televiziuni si, bineinteles, scaderea dramatica a perceptiei asupra libertatii presei in Romania, incredere evaluata de instiutele de monitorizare din afara tarii printr-o procedura ce prevede aplicarea unor chestionare standard unui numar de 20 subiecti. Daca se intampla ca 5 dintre repondenti sa fie ziaristi iar restul tarani, e clara situatia.

Depasind momentul, cred ca cea mai mare temere a politicienilor, indiferent de pozitia pe care o ocupa, este legata de informatiile contradictorii care circula atat on cat si off the record. Nu stiu de ce, insa traiesc cu impresia ca traversam o perioada in care se reitereaza povestea cu adevarul despre Mos Craciun. Un exemplu ar fi istoria cu gripa aviara, in care nici presedintele nu cred ca avea foarte multa incredere, daca ma gandesc ca a putut sa deguste pui in direct la televizor doar sa demonstreze natiunii ca nu e infestat. Puiul, bineinteles. Trebuie insa mentionat ca parte din natiune nu stie ca in spatele presedintelui sunt sute de angajati SPP care monitorizeaza orice miscare inainte ca turturica sa intre in scena. Sau era fazanul? Nu mai conteaza.

Alta situatie de forta majora a fost vaccinul expirat de la Cantacuzino. Din punctul meu de vedere, acest lucru chiar merita intrunirea oficiala a CSAT. Intrunirea probabil ca a fost, insa nu oficial. In aceasta situatie era vorba despre o serie de acreditari si niste banuti ce trebuiau dati anumitor enitati interesate sa bulverseze populatia. In mod cert era o chestiune de siguranta nationala din moment ce OMS a ridicat gradul de alerta la 6.

O alta problema care, in opinia mea, va necesita ulterior atentie discretionara a forurilor nationale si internationale va fi imposibilitatea de plata a utilitatilor de catre populatie. In acest sens vor apela guvernul si primariile la mica intelegere legiferata cel putin pana in 2012 cu furnizorii locali sau Romania risca sa fie declarata focar de infectie? In acest caz cu siguranta ca va fi nevoie de modificarea Constitutiei. Daca se va ajunge la un acord si, in spirit pur romanesc, se va crea o politica de monopol, cum se vor plati amenzile date ce UE? Caci am convingerea ca se vor da amenzi mari. Sa speram totusi ca nu vom ajunge in situatia in care sa ne restrangem granitele dupa victoria limitata cu Insula Serpilor, ca tot se discuta de atata vreme reorganizarea administrativa a spatiului autohton.

28 aprilie 2010

Moody's: Likely to maintain negative outlooks for most European emerging banking systems

By Francesco Meucci
The report concludes that, for this year, Moody"s is likely to maintain negative outlooks for banking systems in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic countries, due to continued negative pressure on financial fundamentals and the still challenging economic environment in many of those countries. Evidence of stabilisation have begun to emerge in a few countries however and the agency says that the outlook for the banking systems in Poland, Russia, Slovakia and Czech Republic could be changed to stable from negative in the second half of 2010.

Report Number: 124447/Romania

Tough economic conditions likely to prevail in 2010, thus underpinning the banking system’s negative credit outlook.

The credit outlook for the Romanian banking system is negative, driven mainly by the still difficult economic conditions in the country following a severe recession in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis. The economic environment in 2010 is likely to be a challenging year for the banks,leading to sizeable loan loss provisions and lower profitability, although concerns about liquidity and capital have diminished following the liquidity crunch in the market in late-2008. However, any systemic risks are alleviated by the commitment that those foreign institutions with Romanian bank
subsidiaries have made to the IMF to support these entities and maintain their exposures in the country.


Minimum conditions to attain a stable outlook are as follows:

» An improving operating environment: sustainable positive GDP growth combined with a lower unemployment rate
» A halt in the deteriorating loan quality trend: stabilisation of the loan quality trends and a gradual reversal towards improvement
» Earnings to be less affected by credit costs: improvements in the banks’ bottom-line profitability,which was severely affected by loan loss provisions
» Liquidity metrics to be less of an issue: increased funding through deposits and reduced dependence on borrowings will lead to an improved liquidity profile
» Maintaining comfortable capitalisation: capitalisation remains strong with parent banks
continuing to support their Romanian subsidiaries in case of need

Expected credit trends in 2010:

Operating Environment – Negative impact: We regard the deteriorating operating environment in Romania in recent quarters as the most challenging aspect faced by the banking system, given the contraction in GDP of around 7.5% in 2009 and the relatively weak growth of around 2.3% expected in 2010. The knock-on effect on the country from the global financial crisis was considerable in 2009, characterised by a contracting economy, rising unemployment and challenging macroeconomic prospects. However, the €20 billion international aid package committed to the country – mainly from the IMF and the European Commission (EC) as well as from the World Bank and other international financial institutions – will help to restore market confidence following a sharp drop in
capital inflows. We believe that the operating environment will remain challenging, with GDP growth not expected to accelerate to around 4% before 2011.

Asset quality – Negative impact: Asset quality challenges arising from the tough economic conditions in the country have been the main source of concern for Romanian banks given the sharp increase in the level of problem loans and credit costs during 2009. Although Romanian banks did not have any exposure to toxic assets related to US sub-prime mortgages, the global deleveraging process that caused the slowdown in the Romanian economy has exposed them to loan quality problems following years of rapid credit growth averaging around 50% during 2004-2007. We are particularly concerned
regarding the high proportion of foreign currency lending mainly to unhedged households, as the weaker local currency elevates their credit risk profile. Loans classified as ‘doubtful’ and ‘loss’ under the relatively conservative local classification norms surged to 15.3% of total gross loans as at YE2009 from 6.5% at YE2008 and 4% at YE2007.

Capital adequacy – Neutral impact: Romanian banks’ adequate capitalisation was able to absorb the shocks in the economy, with no systemically important banks facing any solvency issues during the crisis period. The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) for the banking system was 14.03% at YE2009 while the leverage ratio (Tier 1 capital/Total Average Assets) was 7.11%, compared to 13.76% and 8.13%, respectively, at YE2008. We expect foreign banks to continue supporting their Romanian subsidiaries in case of any capital needs, given the significant growth potential presented by the relatively under-
banked Romanian market. Moreover, Romanian banks have to maintain at least a 10% CAR, as per the IMF’s recommendation to the local regulators, which provides ample buffer to absorb any future possible loan losses on the back of weaker internal capital generation expected in 2010.

Liquidity – Neutral impact: Stressed liquidity in the banking system in late-2008 was subsequently normalised in 2009, although liquidity ratios remain tight as foreign currency funding needs are mainly met by borrowings from the Romanian banks’ foreign parent banks (accounting for 85% of the system’s total assets). The loan-to-deposit ratio is still high at around 113% as at 2009, although lower than the 122% the prior year, reflecting the certain Romanian banks’ reliance on wholesale funding. However, the commitments made by foreign parent banks as part of the IMF/EC aid package to
support their Romanian subsidiaries provide some comfort.

Profitability – Negative impact: Higher loan loss provisions combined with higher funding costs during 2009 have depressed profitability, a scenario that is likely to continue throughout 2010. Profitability was significantly impacted in 2009, with the return on assets (RoA) for the whole banking system declining considerably to 0.24%, from 1.56% in 2008 and 1.01% in 2007. Return on equity (RoE) also declined in 2009 to a low 2.73%, from 17.04% in 2008 and 9.43% in 2007.

Conclusion: Looking ahead, Romanian banks’ financial performance and metrics are likely to remain under pressure amid still challenging macroeconomic prospects, underscoring the negative credit outlook we have assigned to the banking system. Any positive developments with regard to the above-mentioned rating drivers during 2010 would support a possible change in the credit outlook to stable from negative. The Romanian banking system has shown relative resilience to the various shocks in the global and local economy so far, although its creditworthiness weakened during 2009 as a result of the
lower earning streams and higher credit costs.